The Impending Political Landscape in Sabah Ahead of PRN-17

The political stage in Sabah is poised for several possibilities as the 17th State Election (PRN-17) approaches. The current Sabah government is formed through the collaboration of Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), Barisan Nasional (BN) Sabah (Shahelmey Group), and Pakatan Harapan Sabah, with GRS being the dominant party.

On the opposition front, we observe Parti Warisan and BN (Bung Mokhtar Group) as significant players providing a check and balance.

From a political composition standpoint, GRS and Shahelmey Group are likely to unite as a formidable force in PRN-17 if there is a strategic absorption of Shahelmey into the GRS camp. Meanwhile, PH, as usual, may capitalize on opportunities to become part of the Sabah government at that time.

Taking a Pro-Sabahan Based Party perspective, three major external groups—PH, BN, and PN—are seen vying for the opportunity to govern Sabah. Local parties GRS and Warisan are perceived as dominant.

BN Sabah's movement in PRN-17 is likely to be led by Bung Mokhtar, while PN may be led by Ronald Kiande. PH Sabah is expected to engage in a scattered (guerrilla) battle, with no single entity dominating the entire PH Sabah groups, primarily due to internal disagreements, especially among DAP leaders. Ginger Phoong is observed attempting to control DAP Sabah, which is actually led by Frankie Phoon. This situation arises as Ginger Phoong eliminates rivals within the DAP to secure a ministerial position in the GRS government.

Despite the upcoming election where prominent leaders from Peninsula Malaysia such as Anwar Ibrahim, Zahid Hamidi, and Muhyiddin Yassin are likely to be actively involved, Sabah leaders must remain steadfast. They should exhibit firmness, courage, caution, vigilance, and readiness for any possibilities before, during, and after the election. If Abang Jo can stand firm, why not Sabah?

The internal divisions within Peninsula Malaysia-based parties, namely PH, PN, and fragments of BN, provide an advantage to Sabah parties to strengthen Sabah's position politically and administratively. This can be achieved if local parties like GRS and Warisan successfully diminish the influence of Peninsula Malaysia parties in Sabah, especially DAP and UMNO.

How PH Plans to Weaken GRS in Sabah?

As we are aware, the political situation in Sabah is quite unique. In Barisan Nasional, there are two factions, one of them being the Bung Mokhtar group. Meanwhile, Pakatan Harapan has several ministers and deputy ministers. At the grassroots level, we observe power struggles within the Community Development Chairpersons (PPM) due to most constituencies having two PPMs to satisfy PH representatives who supported the Chief Minister. Additionally, DAP will play a key role, either overtly or behind the scenes, in weakening GRS by attempting to manipulate parties under the GRS banner. This has been a longstanding strategy of DAP Sabah, successfully dividing Barisan Nasional and, now, potentially GRS if not approached cautiously.

The understanding between PH and BN, particularly the Bung Mokhtar group, is evident when GRS administrators at the grassroots level lose power, replaced by representatives from either PH or Barisan Nasional in the name of coalition government. This raises questions about disagreements within the GRS administration, especially after the Prime Minister Department's circular stating that grassroots leaders, for example, need not be replaced.

Furthermore, PH ministers, particularly from DAP, are astutely taking advantage of opportunities to claim credit (act as he is heros) for the achievements of the GRS government, which were actually accomplished by others.

Acknowledging that clashes between GRS and any external parties in PRN-17 are inevitable, Sabah leaders must remain vigilant and responsive to surrounding events. This is to prevent a repetition of the historical downfall of local parties and to hope for a Sabah government in the future that is governed 100% by local parties.